US macro/quit rates/JOLTS

Travelling, yesterday, so come to this now. If you are wondering where the sudden surge of “goldilocks” is coming from, JOLTs has the answer (job openings + labour turnover data).

The quits rates reached a new cycle low, 2.1%, and now comfortably below the pre-pandemic level. You only quit a job if you are confident of getting (or already have) another job lined up. The normalisation of this data tells us that the labor market is back in to balance, and hence we don’t need highly restrictive monetary policy.

The other reason, of course, is because J Powell told us. “Cuts this year”, was his comments from the night prior, plus he didn’t push back on market pricing, which he could easily have done.

Overall bullish, for both stocks and bonds.

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