China macro

Another monthly data drop, this one arguably worse than the last. Below is the mix of data, where most estimates are below survey (e.g below expectations).

When plotted over time, the downturn in property and infrastructure is very evident, but retail sales are also looking quite a bit more disappointing that even we had hoped (and our expectations were already low).

GDP on a QoQ basis was the only bright spot, but I am not confident of the GDP numbers, and would probably go with the story provided by “sum of the parts”, e.g. thinking about economic growth through the classic lens of consumption + investment + government + net exports, and how changes in each impact the economy moving forwards.

Very little here to support base metal prices, which have been on a tear, in our view.

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