Bapcor/BAP

Bapcor out with a very large downgrade, as expected. Expected because they’d been in a prolonged trading update, but also expected as per the last 3 or so notes we wrote on the stock.

Happy to have been on the right side of this one.

Anyway, on to the update itself.

Consensus was looking for an NPAT of ~$114m for FY24; that number now goes to the ~$93-97m range. But the real damage is the c$160m trajectory by 2027 (see graph below), which looks very unlikely given the competitive pressures cited in the trading update.

So expect the share price to be much, much lower today.

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