James Hardie/JHX

JHX guidance of $630-$700m FY25 NPAT seems quite different to consensus at $757m.

Sometimes when there’s a difference of that magnitude, I tend to assume Bloomberg’s numbers are out, but at least on the face of it, that would be a really large miss.

We’ve been of the view that the US housing market would hurt JHX and RWC, only to see their share prices rally away from us. RWC only just reiterated guidance last week, so, slightly unclear, more to follow.

Update: (the above note was written premarket)

Last week we wrote about FirstBuilder, who, whilst not even downgrading, managed to fall 20% on a weak US housing trading update.

We noted that is exactly the sort of thing that holds us back from a RWC or JHX, and so it was with JHX’s trading update today.

This is the first of the “new cycle” of downgrades, we will have to mull the probabilities about how many further guidance cuts might be on the cards.

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