US inflation/PCE

The US PCE (personal consumption expenditure) measure was released on US Friday. Good news, with the MoM (see bottom row, middle column) dropping to 0.25% after a run of much higher prints.

Still gotta get lower (see the dashed line as a guide) but hope still springs eternal (as lagged measures of rent wash through).

We also had the Chicago PMI out, which fell into the sea (~34, down from mid 40s); it’s not an indicator one normally cares about, but combined with the good/benign PCE data, served to push yields quite a bit lower, which the market liked.

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