Aus macro/conditions

The NAB survey data is out, fairly soggy for business conditions and business confidence. New orders (see second row, third column) also fairly uninspired.

The Aussie stockmarket is essentially at all time highs, so this weak and downtrending data hasn’t been helpful (see our earlier note on PMI/ISM/soft-data-in-general), but, it is at the least something to hold you back from going materially overweight.

And that has kind of been our battlecry, of late, that there’s plenty of reasons to be bullish, plenty of reasons to be bearish, and until that resolves itself more decisively one way or another, not to have any major tilts away from the SAA weights, e.g., big DAA tilts should arise when there’s a dislocation. You can try and do the big tilt before the bad thing happens, whatever that might be, but if you get it wrong and the market compounds away from you, there’s little hope for recovery.

Wiser, in our view, to remain well diversified, and to take advantage when there is something to take advantage of.

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