Aus macro/job ads

The trend in jobs ads continues to weaken (1.2, down from 1.38, see first column) and quite the revision to the April vintage.

The economy absolutely cooling, here in Aus, and, this data is somewhat at odds with the April ABS employment data (recall that ~40K jobs were added, the unemployment rate fell back to 4%, from 4.1%).

Again, one stresses that we seem only ever a print or two away from upending the narrative but on net, wobbly foundations, I’d suggest, lags in policy still to play out.

Against that, state governments doing all they can to muddy the tea leaves here, all but in outright combat with the intent of the RBA, with lots of spending and subsidies to offset the cost of living pressures.

Honestly, where do they think the inflation is coming from. “Gosh, these prices keep going up, I’d better put some more cash into the system to help cope with that! Now let me check in next month to see if that fixed things…”.

What it creates is an unstable system with what I’d call non-linear dynamics. Households can reach a breaking point (particularly heavily indebted households suffering under high mortgage rates) as the RBA’s blunt instrument (the cash rate) hits them hardest, all the while those without much debt (home owners, renters) continue to spend aided by the subsidies received.

These large resultant sectoral imbalances can end badly for everyone.

Anyway, all that said, I do find SEEK’s valuation (the large listed employment company) all the harder to understand, given the backdrop.

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