US macro/retail sales

There does seem to be a modest slowdown underway in US retail sales. Let your eyes drift to the second row, third column, month on month sales x auto’s and gas, where the MoM value was modestly negative, but with the tiny dotted pink line that represents a smoothed value (akin to a moving average) rolling over more noticably.

The market has been waiting for signs that the consumer is “tapped out”, whether this is it remains to be seen, but as we’ve noted before policy is a) restrictive b) inflation is declining c) wages growth shows some sign of slowing d) GDP data had been weak, at least for the last quarter e) survey data remains weakish (depending on which one you are looking at) f) listed company updates, pointing to a more discerning consumer.

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