Treasury Wine/TWE

Treasury (big luxury wine producer and distributor/marketer, owns Penfolds) out with an investor update.

All pretty much as the market has it, as far as I can tell; FY24 perhaps a fraction lower (from quite high expectations) v consensus & FY25 EBITS growth is inline. The data (broker estimates at the divisional level) drops away for 26-27 (too few estimates) but 15% growth at 45% margin is likely ahead of street given 24/25 2yr CAGR.

So a positive incremental update would be my read. TWE remains a high quality secular growth story, predominantly underpinned (at the margin) by rising “conspicuous consumption” trend towards luxury wines, with China a good opportunity to a) take share (relative to competition) b) take share within the category (rising share of wine as proportion of total market).

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