US macro/US housing

Here’s the US housing data dump. It is quite clearly weak (monthly numbers down a lot, trend is clear) & there’s little to no rates relief in sight, near term (for the US, we are seeing other CB’s who are further along on the inflation taming path cutting). Anyway, weak.

And, here’s JHX (James Hardies) downgrading guidance last month.

Yet Hardies is not far from 18x forward earnings, & at high $40’s is not far from the peak in the share price. It would seem to me that the market continues to underreact to the deteriorating housing related activity. That would suggest further earnings pressure for JHX and RWC.

Mind you, I have thought that for a long time, and they a) held up better in terms of earnings and b) held up better in terms of price, than I’d expected.

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