Aus macro/jobs and wages

The quarterly job vacancies data is out.

They continue to roll over, down a handful of percent.

Mind you, to the degree you can, they broadly map to the current unemployment rate, so they aren’t foreshadowing anything too terrible just yet, rather a normalising of conditions from very overheated and unsustainable levels.

Using retail trade, which is much further advanced, as a canary (proxy for the whole) would get you to a higher unemployment rate, were it a perfect forward looking indicator, which it isn’t.

The inflation print yesterday was not good, and that follows multiple “not good” prints for the local market. Some slight mollification can come from this data.

Retail jobs are very pointy, highly cyclical, and suggest flagging consumer demand (such that you need less staff), in turn suggestive of a consumer that is tapped out. And that’s before we get a rate hike in August!

Believe it or not, further labour market weakening would be a welcome development from the perspective of the market as a whole. The medicine (taking the cash rate to 5%) would be much worse.

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