Aus jobs
The ANZ-Indeed job ads series continues to overshoot to the downside. It’s worth watching because historically the figure does track the unemployment rate reasonably well, and as such would suggest continued pressure to the current 4.34% u/e rate.
We discussed last week how the ABS has moved over to the new monthly series, which has a very short time series, is currently quite a bit beyond the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Pink, below, is the forecast, teal is the actual, and grey is the forecast that prevailed at the time, looking back over the years.
The inflation pressures suggest an RBA that cannot continue to cut, may indeed need to hike, and the labour data recently enjoyed a modest “perking up”, in that employment grew by 42.2K at the last print, after a few soggy months. The Indeed data goes against that narrative.
It’ll simply be one more of the now many macroeconomic cross currents that aren’t telling a consistent or clear story.
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