Investment Insights
Global macro
Global macro
AI I see sanity returning to the market on at least one key topic, currently plastered all over the AFR. I believe this to be good news, overall. Whilst our key concern over the AI build is the return on…Global macro
Words As I look at tech companies attempting to IPO at ludicrous valuations, particularly as rivals give away models practically for free, and as I look at countries where housing markets seemed invincible right up until the moment that things…Global macro
Aus inflation The Aussie inflation data was still warm, to be sure, but the trimmed mean month on month (bottom left) looked surprisingly good at 0.2% MoM. It led to a fairly big move in the market, which breathed a…Global macro
AI revenues The below doesn't match what I understand from their press releases, so I am hesitant to put too much stock in it, but, at face value, this would be quite a slowdown. OpenAI seems to be going much…Global macro
AI When the AI boom kicked off a few years ago we were quite negative, because the technology just didn't match the hype. The LLMs lied, hallucinated, exaggerated, and that, in our view, rendered them unworkable for large scale adoption.…Stocks
IAG IAG has settled the larger of the two outstanding cases. After anticipated recoveries, the settlement is not expected to have a material impact on 2027 results. This is a positive outcome as the aggregate face value of the claimed…Global macro
Economy vs the market Have a look at the Aussie jobs print from yesterday. +40K jobs, whilst the LFPR (a pro-cyclical measure in our view) lifted by 20bps. That's all quite healthy. Wages growth has cooled a touch, arguably a…Global macro
Rates These are fairly confronting borrowing costs, I think. Particularly if you are assessed at an even higher rate. That said, I am mindful of my recent comments about the graph below, which suggests that (the rise in) yields are…Important Information
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